Deathcare Marketing Show | E17: Can AI Predict Death? What Tomorrow’s Mortality Data Can Tell Us with Bill Simpson

Can AI Predict Death? What Tomorrow’s Mortality Data Can Tell Us

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In this episode of the Deathcare Marketing Show, host Mary Barnett is joined by Bill Simpson, a licensed funeral director of over 23 years, owner of two funeral homes in Mid-Michigan, and creator of Mortalytics AI. Bill bridges two seemingly opposite worlds: decades of hands-on deathcare experience and cutting-edge artificial intelligence data science.

Bill breaks down how his patent-pending predictive model, Vitalcast, analyzes local market-level mortality data to help independent funeral home owners forecast changes in natural death rates up to two quarters in advance, transforming how deathcare businesses handle staffing, inventory, cash flow, and digital marketing.

Episode Overview

For decades, funeral homes have managed their businesses by looking through the rearview mirror, using 12-month rolling averages and historical call volumes to plan for the future. But when call volumes drop or spike unpredictably, relying on old data leaves operators constantly reacting rather than proactively preparing.

In this episode, Bill Simpson explains why AI cannot (and should not) predict specific individual deaths, but how machine learning can detect hidden localized patterns in natural mortality. He breaks down how predictive forecasting allows owners to strategically allocate marketing budgets, manage capital expenditures, schedule staff vacations, and grow their call volume with precision.

Key Insights

  • Looking Forward vs. Looking Back: Operating on a 12-month rolling average means you are always a year behind in your data. True operational forecasting requires looking through the front windshield using predictive local intelligence.

  • Predicting Trends, Not Individuals: Predictive mortality AI models only target natural deaths (which account for 93%–95% of all annual deaths) at a localized market level, ignoring non-predictable events like accidents, homicides, or suicides.

  • The “Harvesting Effect” in Mortality: Environmental events like heatwaves or severe winters pull forward deaths of individuals already in the health “pipeline,” often followed by an immediate lull in call volume.

  • Marketing Is a Long Sales Cycle: Cutting marketing dollars during a slow month is often the worst mistake an owner can make. Strategic ad spend placed 2 to 4 months ahead reaps benefits right as call volume rises.

  • AI Enhances, Never Replaces, Human Touch: AI streamlines data formatting, form completion, and trend forecasting, freeing up directors to deliver deep empathy, personalized services, and genuine human connection.

Actionable Tips for Funeral Directors

  • Apply the “Past, Predict, Prepare” Strategy:

    • Past: Move beyond raw historical call counts; evaluate whether past volume spikes were driven by temporary localized events or sustainable market growth.

    • Predict: Utilize localized predictive data (e.g., 2-quarter market trends) rather than broad national or CDC averages that don’t reflect your specific zip codes.

    • Prepare: Adjust operational levers, such as inventory purchasing, staffing schedules, and facility renovations, based on forecasted demand.

  • Differentiate “Want” Projects from “Need” Projects: Postpone non-essential facility capital expenditures or vehicle upgrades when local predictive models indicate an upcoming market dip to preserve cash reserves.

  • Double Down on Hyper-Personalization: Drive call volume growth (as Bill did, growing from 50 to 120+ calls) by capturing small family details, such as custom memorial folders, favorite candy displays, or themed keepsakes.

  • Lead with Service, Worry About Money Last: During arrangement conferences, focus entirely on how to honor and celebrate the individual’s unique life first. Families respect transparency and will naturally invest in meaningful memorialization.

Key Quotes
“We don’t want to help families because somebody died, we want to do it because they lived.”
“Worry about money last and service first. When you concern yourself with celebrating a life, families walk away with a profound appreciation for your care.”
“AI will transform funeral service by giving directors and staff back their time, allowing us to focus on what we do best: showing empathy and caring for families.”

Resources & Links

Guest Company: Connect with Bill Simpson and explore mortality forecasting at Mortalytics AI or call (989) 291-3611.

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